Travel restrictions Batangas-Mindoro, Lockdown damages in PH

Lockdown and travel restriction story, Manila to Mindoro
February 4, 2021

I am reposting with permission this fb post of a friend, Dr. Tomas “Butch” Africa, former NSO Director (ie, National Statistician). Photos of Puerto Galera below, first one from Butch, he took those around 9:30am today. The second photo from my old travel post, 
http://travelpinoy.blogspot.com/2014/12/which-beach-puerto-galera-oriental.html. 

Butch is still in Puerto Galera and will travel back to Manila this coming Sunday. He said he will post again his travel experience. Meanwhile, enjoy this rather travel scare story.
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Locally Stranded Individual Going to Puerto Galera 
Tomas “Butch” Africa
January 30, 2021

People who enter Puerto Galera (PG) can be classified as either a locally stranded individual (LSI), a tourist, or an APOR (Authorized person outside residence). For the reason that I have been in and out of PG several times a year to visit my 2 daughters who call it their second home, I fall under the classification of LSI. I would need a certificate that I took a rapid (swab) antigen test with a negative result, a travel authority, and various clearances. Let me relate to you at how the government has effectively locked down PG, and most of the economy.

1. Clearances from San Juan barangay and City Health Office.

I applied for a clearance on the 19th January from Barangay Pasadena in San Juan City. It certified that I had completed a 14-day home quarantine (10 months actually), that I was not in the Barangay’s list of contact probable, suspect and confirmed cases. The Barangay issued a COVID-19 Contact Tracing Sign and Symptom Log Form in support of this. This was presented to the San Juan City Health Office which issued a Health Certificate dated 20th January which certified that I was in their list of Completed Quarantine in the City and is currently asymptomatic (?).

2. Travel Authority and PG Barangay Certificate of Acceptance.

Then these certificates were presented to the San Juan PNP which issued a Joint Task Force COVID Shield Travel Authority to proceed to PG on the 26th using our Ford Everest with plate number XXX-XXXX, with the remark that I was ‘Returning Home’ (with a Certificate of Acceptance from the Chairman of Barangay Aninuan, PG, certifying that I am a resident and that I will undergo [only] 7 days home quarantine upon arrival because I [will] have a ‘negative’ swab test).

3. Rapid antigen test.

This had to be scheduled so that the antigen test results can be shown to the checkpoints in Calapan and PG within 24 hours of its release. Thru connections with the owner of a lab we were tested in the afternoon of Monday the 25th and were found negative of the virus.

4. On to Calapan.

So we (a party of 4, wife Cecille, daughter Atty. Michelle, myself and the driver) left San Juan City at 5 am headed for Batangas Port, with a side trip to Rosario, Batangas for Atty Michelle to check with the RTC there. At Batangas Port, we presented our documents and bought tickets for the RoRo to Calapan port. We decided to bring the car to Oriental Mindoro. The vessel Reina Justicia left Batangas at 10:17 am and arrived at Calapan at 12:47 pm. The ferry was slow; inside, social distancing was imposed and followed by the passengers.

Upon arrival, our temperatures were checked and our papers processed, for an hour (good thing there weren’t too many arrivals). There were further classifications of LSI, which determined when one can enter Oriental Mindoro, namely: LSI with own vehicle – any day; LSI to be fetched by relatives – only on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays (MWF); LSI to be fetched by Municipal Disaster Risk and Rehabilitation Management Office (MDRRMO) – MWF; and LSI to ride an accredited van – MWF.

Another form was filled out for Locally Stranded Individuals Bound to (sic) Oriental Mindoro and a permit was issued as LSIs with Private Vehicle, to be shown at the PG checkpoint.

5. PG, here we come.

We were met at the checkpoint where personnel were expecting us. The MDRRMO had actually called us up earlier while on the STAR Tollway to check where we were. They escorted us to PG Hospital where our temperatures and our documents were checked (again). All the coordination and advance preparation and information went to naught. We passed this check again.

In accordance with their protocols, we were asked to wait for the Barangay Aninuan chairman who was to escort us to our residence. The Chairman begged off and said that we knew where we were going; the residence was just behind the Barangay hall.

It was nearly 12 hours after we left San Juan City.

6. In Puerto Galera.

We are now on the 4th day of home quarantine; by Tuesday we can transfer to the place of my youngest daughter where our 2 grandsons are staying. We have not seen them, and have not been on the beach, for more than 10 months. The weather here has been wet and windy, but we are enjoying the curated Frenchipino (French and Filipino) meals prepared by the partner of Atty. Michelle, Chef Sebastien Chamaret (formerly based in New York and has settled in PG).

This has kept us sane so far.

If only the IATF knew the formidable bureaucratic fortress it had created against mobility and passage… PG’s main business is tourism, domestic and foreign. Obviously its economy built on hotels and restaurants has shut down.
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Lockdown damages in the Philippines
February 9, 2021

Some recent reports on the econ damages of strict indefinite lockdown in the Philippines.

Economic recovery in Philippines hinges on kids leaving lockdown 
January 26, 2021
https://www.bworldonline.com/economic-recovery-in-philippines-hinges-on-kids-leaving-lockdown/ 

“The example of other countries might shed some light. In Singapore, where schools reopened relatively quickly after the circuit breaker period in June, overall retail sales have already returned to near pre-Covid levels by November,” said Euben Paracuelles, Singapore-based economist at Nomura Holdings Plc.

PH GDP seen to grow 3 percent in 2021, 'best case' at 4 percent
Jan 28 2021 01:17 PM
https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/business/01/28/21/ph-gdp-seen-to-grow-3-percent-in-2021-best-case-at-4-percent

… best-case scenario at 4 percent with a smooth COVID-19 vaccine rollout and increased government spending on infrastructure and agriculture.

Alvin Ang, director of Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, told ANC's Market Edge on Thursday… 

Moody’s Analytics downgrades 2021 PHL GDP 
February 1, 2021 
https://www.bworldonline.com/moodys-analytics-downgrades-2021-phl-gdp/

MOODY’S ANALYTICS downgraded its growth projection for Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 to 4-5%, much lower than official forecasts, citing the lack of fiscal support for the economy and the uncertainty surrounding vaccine acquisition.

Philippine economy seen shrinking anew in Q1 
Lawrence Agcaoili - February 1, 2021 - 12:00am
https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/02/01/2074370/philippine-economy-seen-shrinking-anew-q1

Bank of the Philippine Islands chief economist Jun Neri said the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) may contract mildly in the first quarter. “It seems consumer confidence is starting to show a more meaningful recovery based on the mobility data in the last six weeks of 2020.

Airlines at NAIA try to avert bankruptcy 
Rudy Santos - February 1, 2021 - 12:00am 
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2021/02/01/2074512/airlines-naia-try-avert-bankruptcy 

Before the pandemic, for instance, Philippine Airlines (PAL) flew around 290 to 300 flights per day including those of their hubs at the Clark and Cebu-Mactan international airports.

Now, the company flies only 90 flights per day and carrying only 40 to 60 passengers in an aircraft that could load up to 300 and 400 passengers, respectively.

Neda chief says PHL can further ease mobility restrictions to restart economy 
By Cai Ordinario  February 2, 2021
https://businessmirror.com.ph/2021/02/02/neda-chief-says-phl-can-further-ease-mobility-restrictions-to-restart-economy/

Acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua said the general community quarantine (GCQ) in Metro Manila and nearby areas costs the economy P700 million in wages and salaries daily. This cripples consumption and hinders the growth of the Philippines economy.

Chua said the government has already extended a P1.258 trillion or 6.7 percent of GDP from the start of the pandemic. Together with the reform bills, the total assistance from the government will reach P2.567 trillion or 13.8 percent of GDP.

PH full economic recovery may take 4-5 yrs: Biz leaders
Bruce Rodriguez, Feb 03 2021 09:03 PM 
https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/02/03/21/ph-full-economic-recovery-may-take-4-5-yrs-biz-leaders

Calixto Chikiamco, president of the Foundation for Economic Freedom, said the country's GDP per capita may only go back to pre-pandemic levels within 4-5 years if economic reforms do not push through.

He added that regaining the lost value of the local economy may take two to three years.

PH ‘urgently’ needs to reopen economy as retrenchments pile up, employer group head says 
Feb 04 2021 01:21 AM
https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/02/04/21/ph-urgently-needs-to-reopen-economy-as-retrenchments-pile-up-employer-group-head-says

According to Employers Confederation of the Philippines (ECOP) president Sergio Ortiz-Luis, the country "relies too much on lockdowns" and restrictions to curb the pandemic, arguing the casualties of the deadly disease were far fewer than the number of cases in the Philippines.

"Nakikita ko 'yong mga listahan na di ko alam kung opisyal or what, 'yong mga ibinebentang kompanya, 'yong mga kompanyang nagbabalak magsara, nakakatakot," he said.

Office space vacancy rising, rental fees falling 
By: Doris Dumlao-Abadilla - Reporter / 05:20 AM February 05, 2021
https://business.inquirer.net/317014/office-space-vacancy-rising-rental-fees-falling

Metro Manila’s office property space is moving past the 10-percent vacancy rate for the first time in more than a decade and may remain at the double-digit level in the next two years amid a challenging environment brought about by the coronavirus pandemic, property consulting firm KMC Savills Inc. said.

Leasing activity continued to falter all throughout the metropolis with almost 75,300 square meters of Grade A office space vacated in the fourth quarter of 2020. With 1.1 million sq m of office space on tap for 2021, KMC Savills sees more pressure in the market.

Pandemic to raise number of poor in Philippines 
Czeriza Valencia - February 8, 2021 - 12:00am
https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/02/08/2076002/pandemic-raise-number-poor-philippines

Meanwhile, mandatory vaccine for all Filipinos for various diseases from TB to measles, rotavirus, HPV, etc. may soon become a law. Anti-Covid vaccine not mentioned yet.

House OKs bill expanding mandatory immunization program on 2nd reading 
By ERWIN COLCOL,  February 2, 2021 7:48pm 
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/774318/house-oks-bill-expanding-mandatory-immunization-program-on-2nd-reading/story/.

https://www.congress.gov.ph/photojournal/zoom.php?photoid=2795

Only 2% of Muntinlupa residents willing to be vaccinated 
Feb. 5, 2021 
https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2021/2/5/muntinlupa-city-residents-willingness-to-be-vaccinated.html

And as of today Feb. 9, some 26 countries and economies have reported their 4th Qtr 2020 GDP. The PH is 4th worst:

Azerbaijan -12.4%,  Spain -9.1%,   

Kyrgyztan -8.6%,  Philippines -8.3%,

Austria -7.8%,   Italy -6.6%, 

Portugal -5.4%,   France -5.0%, 

Czech Rep. -5.0%, Belgium -4.8%, 

Mexico -4.5%,   Germany -3.9%, 

Singapore -3.8%,   Russia -3.1%

Hong Kong -3.0%,   Sweden -2.6%, 

US -2.5%,  Indonesia -2.1%, 

S. Korea -1.4%,   Latvia -1.4%,

Serbia -1.3%,   -1.2%,

Uzbekistan 1.6%,   Vietnam 4.5%,

Taiwan 4.9%,   China 6.5%.

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-annual-growth-rate

A refresher in macroeconomics:

GDP = C + I + G + (X-M).

Where: GDP is the amount of flow of goods and services in a year, C is household consumption, I is investment (private) and G is government consumption. (X-M) is exports of goods and services less imports of goods and services. 

During normal years pre-Covid, C is about 65% of GDP, it's huge. I is about 23% of GDP and G is only about 12% of GDP. (X-M) tend to cancel each other. 

So when you have strict prolonged lockdown, C and I are heavily affected and they constitute about 85% of GDP, so that even if G expands to 15% or 20% of GDP during lockdown, it won't be enough to pull up the entire economy. And so you have huge GDP contraction or "negative growth".

At -9.5% GDP contraction in 2020, PH needs to grow at least 10.5% in 2021 to be at the 2019 level of GDP size. If we grow only 10% or less, we would be at slightly higher level 2018 GDP size. Govt targets 7% but most private banks and investors see only about 4-5% growth this year, so we would be at 2018 level. We lost 3 years equivalent of economic activities. Many hotels, restos, provincial buses, provincial resorts, etc have near zero output 2020 to 2021 when they were growing briskly in 2019 and previous years.

Prolonged, strict lockdown is evil.