Lockdown vs No lockdown Europe, PH GDP Q2 2020 meltdown
Hard lockdown Europe vs no lockdown Sweden, any difference in death trend?
August 4, 2020
Six European countries were heavily affected by Covid-19 or Wuhan virus: Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden and UK. As of August 03, 2020, they have 460+ or higher deaths per million population (DPMP). Russia and Germany also have high cases but their DPMP are low, only 98 and 110, respectively.
Of the six countries mentioned, five have heavy lockdown policies while Sweden has no lockdown. Below are the charts of daily deaths of the six countries from March to August 03. Data from
Question 1: Can you guess which of them is Sweden?
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You got or guessed Sweden?
The answer is #6, the last.
The countries from #1 to #6 and their respective DPMP are: Belgium 850, UK 680, Spain 609, Italy 582, France 464, Sweden 568.
The six countries again:
Question 2: Any difference in trend with the five high-lockdown countries with no-lockdown Sweden?
None. They all have similar trend of declining, low deaths, even zero on some days, in recent weeks.
Two lessons we can derive from the above data.
One, lockdowns did NOT help in containing the spread of the virus. What helped was protecting the oldies and immuno-compromised people because they have the weakest immune system in the population to withstand the virus.
Two, herd immunity threshold (HIT) may have been attained already in Europe, Sweden in particular.
The Philippines (only 19 DPMP) should stop this continuing and indefinite lockdown policy, started March 16, ECQ-GCQ, MECQ August 4-18. These lockdowns are "guided by science" kuno. In my estimate, it's 50% political science, 30% military science, 20% medical science.
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Update: European Mortality Monitoring (MOMO), until July 2020.
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The PH's Q2 2020 GDP meltdown
August 7, 2020
The Philippines experienced technically an economic meltdown in the second quarter (Q2) this year with a -16.5% GDP contraction, the lowest since 1981. The country is also in a recession having a two consecutive quarterly contraction -- along with SG, HK, and many EU countries. 
The virus did not cause this. All countries have their own share of virus infections. It was the PH government's hard lockdown policies that started in March 16 up to the present. See
Covid 16, Philippines having the strictest lockdown policies in the world (July 28, 2020).
The virus did not cause this. All countries have their own share of virus infections. It was the PH government's hard lockdown policies that started in March 16 up to the present. See
Covid 16, Philippines having the strictest lockdown policies in the world (July 28, 2020).
In Europe, notice also that no-lockdown Sweden has (a) escaped contraction in Q1, and (b) lowest contraction in Q2 compared to its hard-lockdown neighbors.
Here's the PH's GDP quarterly performance, data from the PH Statistics Authority (PSA).
The endless, indefinite lockdown should stop. Mr. President, open up the economy.
We can learn from Sweden -- no lockdown, only the oldies and immuno-compromised people were protected and quarantined, the healthy and young can go out anytime. Shops and schools, restaurants and bars, churches are open; trains and buses go. Social distancing is limited to 50 people max in a gathering.
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