BWorld, Crisis narratives as hindrance to growth and freedom

* BusinessWorld February 27, 2023. 
-----------

Feb. 24 last week marked the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Ukraine crisis has morphed from a border war between the two countries to a potential nuclear conflict in Europe. Here are five major crisis narratives which have had a big impact on economic growth and individual freedom.

1. The virus/pandemic crisis. It led to widespread government-imposed business and mobility restrictions or lockdowns and human isolation, while expanding government spending and borrowing.

House Bill 6522 and Senate Bill 1869 will create a new bureaucracy — the Philippine Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC). I have two objections against this bill.

One, it contradicts the National Government Rightsizing Program (NGRP) of the Marcos Jr. administration which aims to reduce redundancy or duplication of functions, and reduce government spending. See this column’s piece last week, “Bureaucratic rightsizing a big part of fiscal reform push” (Feb. 20). Instead of reducing the existing bureaucracies, the bill is creating a new agency with new plantilla positions and more personnel with national and regional offices.

Two, the same people and professionals who distrust natural immunity from natural infection from COVID-19 and pushed to trust only vaccine immunity and mandatory vaccination, who demonized cheap, off-patent, generic medicines like ivermectin and other supplements as prophylaxis and treatment to COVID, will likely be sitting in the key positions of the new bureaucracy CDC.

The Concerned Doctors and Citizens of the Philippines (CDC PH), Covid Call for Humanity (CCH), Constitutionally Compliant Businesses (CCB PH), Hilway Panay, and other NGOs held a simultaneous protest movement against the proposed CDC bill in key cities of the country on Feb. 25. Stay brave, guys. Protect civil liberties and human rights, and individual rights to one’s body and health. Resist political science that masquerades as medical science to impose political and medical tyranny.

2. The economic/poverty crisis. Government-imposed lockdowns then overspending and borrowing for aid/ayuda and subsidies will lead to more taxes in the future to pay for the huge borrowing.

Below I make two computations: a.) required growth in 2021 to reach the level of 2019’s gross domestic product (GDP), and, b.) required growth in 2023 to expand by 15% over 2019’s GDP level. The results show that for many East Asian economies, their GDP growth in 2021 has enabled them to recover a similar GDP size of 2019.

For the Philippines, a.) GDP growth in 2021 should have been 10% and not just 5.7% to be at the same GDP size or level of 2019, and, b.) growth in 2023 should be at least 11.7% if targeting to have at least a 15% expansion in 2023 over 2019 level (See Table 1).

By 2021, many of our neighbors in East Asia had already recovered to their 2019 levels — the Philippines did not. Meaning that the effects of the government’s lockdowns and business shutdowns was severe and deep. This administration and succeeding ones should never impose another lockdown and political-medical tyranny.

Related narratives are: the inequality crisis, population/congestion crisis, education crisis, housing crisis....